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A new analysis by public health consultant Kevin Duffy suggests that many women who undergo abortions in their 20s may face a significant risk of remaining childless by midlife — a risk he says is often not communicated during the decision-making process.
According to Duffy’s findings, drawn from official data and demographic projections, 5,500 women who were 29 years old, childless and had an abortion in 2022 may not have been advised that there is roughly a 50 per cent likelihood of being childless at the age of 45.
The study highlights growing concern over the country’s declining fertility rate, which reached a record low of 1.41 children per woman in England and Wales in 2023 — the lowest level recorded for the third consecutive year, according to the Office for National Statistics (ONS).
“If we are to address this issue responsibly, we must confront all contributing factors — including the role of abortion — with honesty and urgency,” Mr Duffy wrote.
Chief executive of Christian Concern Andrea Williams said the findings raise ethical and practical questions about the information women receive before making reproductive choices.
“Despite their reputation as ‘pro-choice,’ abortion providers fail to give women the full picture of what the choice to abort will mean for them in the long term,” she said.
“How many women would make different decisions if they knew there was a 50/50 chance they might never have children?”
Some analysts describe this as “unplanned” or “unintended” childlessness, suggesting it is a misfortune beyond women’s control.
While a small number struggle with infertility or pregnancy complications, health-related cases alone cannot explain why so many women remain without children by midlife.
Ms Williams also linked the rising abortion rate to wider social and economic challenges posed by an aging population and shrinking workforce.
“Every unborn child deserves protection from any-reason, any-stage abortion practices that anti-life activists in our country want,” she added.
“These practices are not just wrong but, these abortions are a major contributor to our wider problems. Hundreds of thousands of people don’t get to be born every year, meaning a smaller workforce supporting an aging population.”
ONS data reveals that the average age of first-time has grown from roughly 24 in the 1970s to close to 31 in 2024, reflecting a broader trend towards delayed childbearing.
Experts warn that while many women hope to start families later, biological limitations mean a growing number are unable to conceive when they try.
While the average number of children per mother has stayed around 2.3 for decades, smaller family sizes overall point to rising childlessness, ONS data indicates.
Projections cited in the analysis suggest that by the mid-2040s, one in four women could reach age 45 without having children — with abortion identified as a significant contributing factor in around half of those cases.
According to ONS data, in 2022, nearly half of all pregnancies among women aged 25 and under — 90,753 out of 191,970 — ended in abortion, reflecting a significant shift in how Generation Z is managing fertility and family planning.
Additionally, examination of ONS conception data from the past decade suggests that roughly half of women who are without children by age 30 might have become mothers if they had not chosen abortion in their teens or twenties.
In these cases, childlessness was not accidental but followed a deliberate decision, often shaped by personal or social circumstances at the time.
Ms Williams called for abortion providers to offer “independent counselling” and full disclosure about fertility implications, as well as alternative support options.
Similarly, Mr Duffy concluded in his analysis: “The majority of these 5,500 will want to have children; it is very unlikely that they were warned by the abortion providers that there is a 50% risk that this might not happen. A risk this high demands to be fully investigated and women need to be told.”
