In the last two years, the number of college students who identify as transgender has dramatically diminished, according to a report called “The Decline of Trans and Queer Identity among Young Americans.”
Writing for the Centre for Heterodox Social Science, Canadian professor of politics at the University of Buckingham, Eric Kaufmann, analyzed several surveys, including one conducted by the Foundation for Individual Rights and Expression (FIRE) headquartered in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, which questioned over 50,000 undergraduates from more than 250 American colleges.
Kaufmann told CBN News that more American college students see themselves as heterosexual now than in recent years. He said the number of people identifying as trans, or non-binary, which he says are identities that are so similar that differentiating between the two is like “splitting hairs,” first began rising in 2010 and continued upward until 2023, when it peaked. Since then, he reports, it has dropped by about half, from nearly seven percent to under four percent. He adds that college freshmen are a lot less likely than seniors to identify as trans.
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“If the youngest cohort represents the future, more than the seniors who are graduating, then yes, that would seem to indicate that these trends will continue,” he said, while pointing out he’s not sure where the endpoint is. “I mean, are we going to return to where we were in 2010? We’re not near to that yet, but certainly the direction of travel is towards a decline.”
Kaufmann said that just a couple of years ago, college students considered sexual fluidity hip, but campuses are now experiencing what he calls a “vibe shift.”
“Much of this just seems to be about tastes and fashions, that these nonconforming gender and sexual identities are less fashionable, less cool, maybe among young people than they were a few years ago. That seems to be the story,” he said.
He points out a number of young trans adults are genuinely confused, and one reason for the drop could be better mental health among young people.
Kaufmann says this research could signal a reduction in surgeries and hormone injections, which can scar young people for life.
“One of the hopes here is that the demand for those procedures will fall as this trend beds down, and that if this continues, we should see less chemical and physical transitioning,” he said. “That would be a prediction.”
Some critics say that while the study presents interesting data, it doesn’t give a clear-cut cause behind the decline.
Kaufmann’s post on the social media platform “X” about his new report has been viewed by more than 19 million people, garnering pushback from liberals.
1/ NEW: trans identification is in free fall among the young
(h/t @FIRE data in particular) pic.twitter.com/i0Z1BNcWG8
— Eric Kaufmann (@epkaufm) October 14, 2025
“People on the left who say, ‘Well, this is happening because of Trump and what’s been happening on legislation around trans,'” he said, adding that conservatives sometimes take issue with his findings, as well. “People who are worried that if we think things are improving, then the political will is going to decline to reform, for example, gender ideology in schools or whether schools have to inform parents of when kids transition and all of this sort of thing.”
Nevertheless, Kaufmann stands behind his analysis.
