As the battle with Iran continues, both Israel and the U.S. reportedly want a bold leader inside the country to force real change. With Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei reportedly out of commission and most of Iran’s old guard gone, the big question is: who’s actually running the show and trying to end the conflict?
President Trump’s statement that he’s in talks with a top Iranian official set off rumors that Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the hardline speaker of Iran’s parliament, might be the one negotiating. Trump has now confirmed it, but Ghalibaf says he’s not talking to the United States.
Military analyst Doran Kempel thinks both the U.S. and Israel hope that Iran’s next leader will come straight from the IRGC.
“We need to make sure that we demolish all the military infrastructure along the way. We’re preparing a friendly general, a friendly general who’s probably already in a relationship with the Mossad or the CIA, and when we feel that the IRGC has been weakened sufficiently, this general basically steps up and leads an uprising,” Kempel explained. “I don’t have inside information. I don’t know where we stand relative to that step, but it’s probably a matter of a few weeks.”
Kempel used to serve as deputy commander of Sayeret Matkal, Israel’s top special forces unit. The remaining question is, what’s the backup plan if no revolution transpires and there’s no friendly general?
“The next option that can be done with our massive airpower is to just break Iran into small parts. They’re never going to be any economy. They can develop any power not in the next 30 to 50 years.
That is very painful for the Iranian people,” Kempel said.
The worst thing for Iran’s people would be attacks on the oil supply or power grid. That would hit everyone hard.
President Trump has given Iran ten more days to fully open up the Strait of Hormuz. If they don’t work out a deal, he says air strikes on Iran’s power plants will be ordered.
“Certainly the regime is radical in its entirety, but I believe there remain a few individuals who can be described as pragmatic and reasonable to at least here or offer their own terms with the US and Israel,” said Middle East analyst and Young Voices Senior contributor Abdullah Hayek.
Hayek said President Trump believes Iran wants to make a deal on nuclear weapons. However, when it comes to Iran’s support for groups like Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis, Hayek believes that’s probably not up for discussion.
“The proxies are also equally important for Iran because they’re a first line of defense. They can deter and impose pressure on Israel and the regional allies of the US,” Hayek explained. “So, the Iranians will just, in no way, shape, or form, surrender that. So I don’t think that the deals are beneficial to the U.S. or the region in any way. Personally, I don’t believe there’s anyone in the regime in Iran right now that can be trusted.”
President Trump said he wants to strike a deal by Easter to open the Straits and end the fighting. But he’s not taking any chances.
More U.S. troops are on the way, just in case an Iranian general decides to jump ship and turns to the American military for help in taking control of what’s left of the collapsing regime.
