The 2022 invasion of Ukraine was supposed to be what Russians call ‘a small, victorious war.’ Four years later, Russia has suffered the highest casualty rate of any major power in any war since World War II. An estimated 1.2 million dead and wounded, twice the casualty rate of Ukraine.
A war the Kremlin expected to be over in days has now lasted longer than the Soviet Union’s fight against Nazi Germany.
The once vaunted Russian army has performed dismally, sending wave after wave of men to their deaths with little to show for the huge price paid in blood.
Some have joked that a snail could cross more territory in four years than the Russian Army has captured. While Russia has made recent gains, it holds less territory than it did in the first weeks of the war.
Strategists used to question how long Ukraine could hold on against the much larger and more sophisticated Russian military. Now, some are asking how long Russia can hold on.
Ukraine says it killed 35,000 Russian troops in December alone. Ukraine War analyst Paul Warburg said, “Russian soldiers are now becoming casualties, actually dying, at a faster rate than Russia can recruit them. And so, if that trend continues, which so far it has for a couple of months, that is a tipping point in the war, because it means that from this point forward, the Russian military will shrink.”
The Russian economy, after booming for a short time from war production, is now stagnating, facing high inflation and interest rates.
“The economy is in shambles,” according to Warburg. “The Ruble is fading, and we can tell that because Russia is having to do the number one thing they don’t want to do, which is lower recruitment bonuses for their soldiers, which essentially is, you know, kind of proof that they’re running out of money.”
Some polling still shows support for the war among the Russian public. The Kremlin just banned Western social media apps in what a well-known Russian war blogger termed “pre-emptive riot control.”
Blogger Maxim Kalashnikov also said the war had become, “…a crisis of Russian statehood. A ‘perfect storm’ is forming during a stupidly drawn-out war. Disaster is approaching.”
“And that’s precisely why, right now it’s the right time while (Putin’s) economy is very fragile, to put more pressure on him,” says Strategic analyst Dr. Ivana Stradner, who also says Vladimir Putin remains committed to the long game, which he believes he can win.
“Even though we are talking about a full-scale invasion since 2022. We have to understand that Russia has started this war more than a decade ago. For Putin, this war is a protracted war, and he believes that he can win in the long run by actually outlasting the West,” Stradner says.
Ukrainian Ambassador Olga Stefanishyna tells CBN News Ukraine is ready to make peace, but there can be no peace until Russia stops attacking it.
“Ukraine cannot stop defending itself,” Ambassador Stefanishyna said. “It’s like giving up your life. It’s as simple, but Ukraine wants a peace. And of course, we understand that if only Russian troops would leave Ukraine, the war will be over. But if Ukrainians will stop fighting, Ukraine will be over.”
Russia’s ‘small, glorious war’ was a major military miscalculation that is slowly eating away at the Russian economy and military morale, and it no longer looks as if time is on Vladimir Putin’s side.
