Donald Trump might be CEO of the MAGA movement, but there are signs that not everyone inside the coalition is marching in lockstep anymore.
Take Tucker Carlson, for example, who campaigned for Trump, thinking he wouldn’t get the U.S. involved in Middle East wars. Now, he’s lamenting his choice. “I do think it’s a moment to wrestle with our own consciousnesses. We’ll be tormented by it for a long time, I will be, and I want to say I’m sorry for misleading people.”
Carlson represents a small portion of the America First contingent that has broken away from Trump over the war with Iran. They believed Trump’s second term would avoid deeper foreign entanglements overseas.
Rob Bluey, who covers politics for The Daily Signal, says the Iran strikes became a turning point for some in that wing of the movement. “Donald Trump in many ways defined what, what it means to wear that MAGA label, and for a long time, including the first year of his second term, it was really about promoting peace abroad. And I think that his decision to launch the strikes on Iran was the breaking point for so many of these figures.”
The president’s response was vintage Trump. When outspoken conservative podcaster critics went after him, Trump responded forcefully, posting on Truth Social: “They are not MAGA, I am.” And that seems to be reflected in polling. A recent survey showed only 31 percent of Republicans had a favorable view of Carlson compared to 77 percent who viewed Trump favorably.
But influential podcasters like Megyn Kelly, who has also criticized Trump over some issues, see serious cracks emerging. “The Trump coalition that got Trump elected is completely fractured and in smithereens, and he doesn’t care.”
It hasn’t just been foreign policy. A slice of MAGA continues to be frustrated over what they see as the botched handling of the Epstein files and what critics describe as a hands-off approach by Trump. Bluey says the issue continues to create problems politically. “The Epstein files are something that continues to confound, I think, President Trump in ways that he’s just not able to figure out why so many Americans might be frustrated.”
Then there’s the economy. Trump’s standing among white voters without a college degree – one of the most reliable pillars of his political base – has slipped dramatically over the past year, according to new YouGov/CBS polling. In February 2025, Trump held a plus-36 approval rating among white non-college voters. By April of this year, he had fallen underwater with the group at minus-4. That’s a 40-point swing. They still love his no-nonsense style, but economic anxiety has hit hard.
“You see, increasingly, a larger and larger share of Republicans saying that they’re concerned about their personal finances or they may not be completely satisfied with Donald Trump’s handling of the Iran war because it’s led to higher gas prices,” Bluey says. “So I do think if you’re the president, it’s important to be mindful that the decisions that he makes on a global stage could have ramifications here at home.”
Any splits within MAGA, whatever the size, could have immediate political ramifications. “Any small number of percentage points could have a dramatic impact on the outcome of, say, the 2026 midterm elections, where Republicans have a narrow majority in both the House and Senate,” says Bluey.
And of course, after the midterms, attention will turn to the 2028 presidential race, where these divisions inside MAGA will most likely sharpen even more.
