The U.S. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration officially confirmed the existence of an El Nino last week. The weather event is expected to peak in the months ahead and could reach historic strength.
https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/el-nino-forms-expected-to-strengthen-say-noaa-forecasters
Jon Gottschalck, operational branch chief at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center said the announcement of the formation of El Nino is based on sustained observations of rising temperatures in the Pacific Ocean.
“When those are strongly positive and consistent and across the whole basin, we know that’s a pretty strong precursor to an El Nino event,” he said.
WeatherBELL Analytics Chief Meteorologist Joe Bastardi told CBN News El Nino is a natural phenomenon.
https://www.weatherbell.com/
“There’s an immense amount of geothermal input that has increased since the late 1980s and ’90s,” he said, “In other words, the vents in the bottom of the ocean are putting heat into the ocean.”
NOAA says there’s a 63-percent chance the El Nino will get so intense this late fall and early winter that it will equal or exceed the record El Nino that began in 1997. Some are calling it a Super El Nino.
“It’s checking a lot of the boxes, even at this earlier time,” Gottschalck said, “Things can always change, but right now it’s checking all the boxes for it evolving into being one of the historically strong events.”
A Super El Nino typically raises the Earth’s global average temperature by roughly one-half of one degree Fahrenheit. It can trigger storms, heat waves, and droughts. Nevertheless, Bastardi warns climate alarmism.
“The way you get attention is, ‘Oh my gosh, this has never happened before. There’s unprecedented climate change,'” he said, “That’s not how it happens. That’s not how it works. If you go back and look at these things, you could see the good and the bad and some ugly. And that’s probably what you’re going to see this year too.”
Bastardi predicts the current El Nino, like the one in 1997, will minimize Atlantic hurricanes.
“That was a very powerful El Nino. The strongest on record, it was a benefit for the United States,” he said, “We had one storm, a Category One storm hit. Danny hit Louisiana on July 15th. The rest of the hurricane season? Nothing.”
Bastardi also believes, just like in 1997, this El Nino will likely mean higher average temperatures this winter in the northern portions of the United States, which will translate into lower heating costs for millions of residents.
“We had a very warm winter across the country and across the big heating areas of the country,” he said, “The U.S. averages $16 billion of climate expenses a year. That’s natural. And that particular year, we only had four to $5 billion of climate expenses.”
This El Nino is expected to provide much needed precipitation to the U.S. agriculture industry and drought-stricken states, although western South America will likely see an increase in hurricanes.
“This will be a benefit for California, New Mexico, Arizona,” Bastardi said, “One thing we’ve got to really look out for, the West Coast of Mexico tends to get hit a lot in these El Nino seasons with Pacific hurricanes,” he explained, “That’s bad, right? But then the moisture comes up into the southwest and replenishes some of the drought conditions in there. That’s good.”
El Nino is expected to alter the climate worldwide by making it slightly warmer and wetter. However, its specific impacts will vary depending on the location.
