Most American voters say the country is on the wrong track heading into the midterm elections, and the independent voters who often decide close races are among the most dissatisfied, a new national poll finds.
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The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll found 60% of registered voters say the country is going in the wrong direction, while 30% say it’s headed in the right direction and 10% aren’t sure. The wrong-track number is unchanged from June but up from 54% in March.
The Center Square Voters’ Voice Poll was conducted by Noble Predictive Insights from Aug. 12-16, surveying 2,533 registered U.S. voters. The sample included 930 Republicans, 930 Democrats, and 673 Independents. Among independent voters, 330 respondents were classified as True Independents, or individuals who do not lean toward either major party when given the choice.
Independent and nonpartisan voters were among the most dissatisfied, with 66% saying the country is on the wrong track. Among true independents, those who don’t lean toward either party, 62% said wrong direction, but nearly a quarter, 24%, were unsure. That’s the highest level of uncertainty of any group in the poll.
Mike Noble, founder of Noble Predictive Insights, a nonpartisan polling firm that conducted the poll, said that combination of pessimism and uncertainty makes independents a pivotal group heading into November. They know they’re unhappy, he said, but many haven’t settled on what to do about it politically.
“They’ve diagnosed the problem, but they haven’t necessarily picked the solution yet,” Noble told The Center Square.
He said their dissatisfaction creates an opening for Democrats but shouldn’t be read as guaranteed support.
Wrong-track sentiment has held steady at a high level since summer. It climbed from 54% in March to 60% in June, then stayed at 60% in August. The stall comes as inflation continues to top voters’ list of concerns, with prices ranking as the most important issue in the same poll.
The poll also found a widening gender gap. In August, 67% of women said the country is on the wrong track, compared with 52% of men, a 15-point divide that has grown steadily since March, when it stood at 8 points.
Noble said the gap is notable in part because it holds up even within party lines. Women are generally more likely than men to say the country is off track regardless of political affiliation, he said, which suggests they are registering broader dissatisfaction with the current environment. He said the pattern shows up elsewhere in the poll, including on the congressional ballot, where women lean more heavily toward Democrats.
Alan Abramowitz, a political scientist at Emory University, said measures like wrong-track sentiment and presidential approval tend to move up or down together for men and women rather than diverging. Without more polling to confirm it, he told The Center Square he would treat the widening gap as a possible anomaly that may not persist.
The dissatisfaction split sharply along party lines. Democrats were the most pessimistic, with 82% saying the country is on the wrong track, while Republicans were the most positive. The gender and independent divides sit atop that partisan baseline, with women and unaffiliated voters more sour than the overall electorate.
The White House did not respond to a request for comment on the poll’s findings.
The poll’s margin of error is +/- 2.0%.
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This article was originally published at the Center Square. Photo Credit: capitol by Yael Clusman on Unsplash).
