WASHINGTON — As the conflict involving Iran disrupts global markets, economists warn that the fallout could land squarely on American homebuyers at a time when affordability is already stretched.
The connection starts with oil.
As fighting drives up energy prices, the cost of everything from transportation to goods tends to rise alongside it, fueling broader inflation. And that’s where the housing market comes in.
“Oil prices are a key input in all of this because oil touches so many aspects of the economy,” said Ted Rossman, principal analyst at Bankrate. “Obviously, what we put in our cars, air travel—these are some of the direct impacts. But there are a lot of indirect impacts, really transporting goods from point A to point B throughout the supply chain.”
Rossman says those ripple effects can quickly build.
“If it costs more to transport groceries or clothing items or electronics, higher oil prices can really force inflation higher across the economy,” he explained. “And then when inflation is higher, of course, the Fed needs to keep rates higher to try to clamp down on that. But it just has ripple effects throughout.”
That puts the Federal Reserve in a difficult position. Persistent inflation makes it less likely the central bank will cut interest rates anytime soon—and in some cases, could even lead to higher rates.
Mortgage rates, which are closely tied to government bond yields, tend to follow that trajectory.
Markets reacted quickly to the instability, with rising oil prices pushing bond yields higher and making borrowing more expensive. For homebuyers, that shift is already being felt.
“As recently as February, we thought there could be two, maybe three cuts this year,” Rossman said. “We actually saw the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate briefly go below 6%… and there was a feeling that maybe it could go as low as about 5.5% and that would spur some people to get in off the sidelines.”
That optimism, he says, has faded.
“Now, a lot of that momentum has reversed,” Rossman added. “So whether we’re talking housing or car loans, credit card rates—borrowing could remain costlier for the balance of the year.”
The result is a housing market that had just begun to show signs of relief but is tightening once again. Higher mortgage rates mean higher monthly payments, putting homeownership further out of reach for some buyers and causing others to hold off.
“There are some pretty far-reaching ripple effects here,” Rossman noted.
Uncertainty is also slowing activity.
According to the National Association of Realtors, existing home sales dropped about 3.5% in March from the previous month and were down roughly 1% compared to a year ago—falling to a nine-month low.
“Some of the optimism that we had for the 2026 housing market back in February has been dampened quite a bit,” Rossman said.
While oil prices dipped slightly after news of a temporary ceasefire, analysts caution the volatility is far from over. As long as global instability keeps pressure on energy prices and inflation, mortgage rates are likely to remain elevated.
And for buyers watching every fraction of a percentage point, even small shifts can make a big difference, keeping meaningful relief out of reach for now.
