For decades, the Strait of Hormuz stood as the single most critical chokepoint in the global energy supply — a narrow passage through which roughly 20 percent of the world’s daily oil consumption flowed. Iran’s attacks on shipping during the current conflict have forced that assumption into a reckoning, as Gulf nations scramble to build alternative routes and reduce their dependence on a waterway Tehran has long threatened to close.
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Before the conflict began, approximately 20 million barrels per day passed through the strait. That figure has now fallen below half of prewar levels, according to the Washington Times, triggering a rapid acceleration of pipeline and port infrastructure across the region.
From the Washington Times:
Saudi Arabia is routing oil through Yanbu on the Red Sea; the UAE is using Fujairah on the Gulf of Oman and aims to double its output there by 2027.
Iraq approved preliminary deals involving Chevron and a U.S. consortium to revive the Haditha-Baniyas pipeline linking Iraqi oil to Mediterranean ports in Syria; restoration could take up to four years.
Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent predicted the strait could become “irrelevant” within two years, with 50 to 70 percent of energy shipments moved through pipelines.
The numbers behind those projections, however, carry significant caveats. Energy Secretary Chris Wright estimated regional flows at roughly 15 million barrels per day, including 5 to 7 million barrels per day through upgraded pipelines and facilities. Analyst Joel Rayburn called 12 to 13 million barrels per day plausible. Analyst Gordon Gray cautioned that alternative routes may initially cover only about half of the former 20 million barrels per day capacity — a gap that matters enormously for global markets already feeling the strain. Brent crude has risen to $85 to $90 per barrel, 20 to 30 percent above prewar prices, and U.S. gasoline has averaged above $4 per gallon compared to just over $3 in mid-August 2025.
Kuwait and Qatar face particular exposure, lacking their own bypass routes. The strait also remains essential for liquefied natural gas, petrochemicals, fertilizer, helium, and other commodities that pipelines cannot easily carry. Red Sea alternatives carry their own risks — Iran-backed Houthi attacks have kept that corridor volatile as well. The emerging picture is not of a strait made obsolete overnight, but of a region quietly engineering a future in which Iran’s leverage over global energy is permanently diminished, even if the waterway is never fully abandoned.
The book of Proverbs observes that a nation without wise counsel falls, but with many advisers its plans succeed. The reshaping of Middle East energy infrastructure in real time is a reminder that the consequences of conflict ripple far beyond the battlefield — affecting fuel prices for American families, the stability of allied economies, and the long-term balance of power in a region central to biblical prophecy. Let us pray for wisdom among the leaders navigating this volatile moment, for the protection of those whose livelihoods depend on stable energy markets, and for a lasting resolution that removes Iran’s ability to hold the world’s energy supply hostage.
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(Excerpt from the Washington Times. Photo Credit: Photo by Zachary Pearson- U.S. Navy via Getty Images).
